In 4Q22, Sandalwood estimates existing home GTV (RMB) at the high end of the consensus range; new home GTV (RMB) is largely in line with consensus:   In CNY 3Q22 Company Reporting 4Q22 Sandalwood Estimation 4Q22 Consensus Existing home GTV +19% y/y +8% y/y (+5-10% y/y) +1% y/y (-5-+6% y/y, 6 analysts) New home GTV -36% y/y -31% y/y (-34-29% y/y) -32% y/y (-34-30% y/y, 6 analysts) No. of agents -22% y/y -16% y/y  (-19-14% y/y) N/A   Sandalwood Scraping Data Is Relevant and Predictive High capture rate and high correlation: Second-hand home GTV: Data captured ~100% of company reporting existing home GTV. New home GTV: Data captured ~100% of company reporting new home GTV. Agent: Data captured around 95% of company reporting number of agents by the end of Mar-22. Sandalwood scraping second-hand property GTV grew at +5% y/y in 4Q22, slightly slowing down from 3Q22’s +11% y/y. Notes: Sandalwood captured new home GTV decelerated in 4Q22 while estimated company reporting new home GTV became less negative mainly due to our captured data has higher base in 4Q21 while company reporting has lower base in 4Q21. In 4Q21, we saw BEKE reported new-home way below expectation, which we believe was a move to smooth out the inflated numbers in 3Q21.

Positive Trend:  1. Hainan DFS and Ctrip (TCOM) recover strongly from late Dec through Jan, driven by revenge travel 2. Lululemon continues to outperform sportswear peers both online and offline 3. Li Auto shows resilience through L8/L9 models 4. Moncler accelerates and outperforms luxury peers 5. Luckin Coffee rebounds strongly thanks to recovery in offline spending 6. Energy & Mining/Utilities sectors continue to see strong hiring momentum   Negative Trend:  1. Starbucks only partially improves in Jan, remains negative y/y, and well-underperforms Luckin Coffee 2. Yunda deteriorates likely due to staff shortage and delivery backlog 3. Skechers/Puma continue to lose share in sportswear sector 4. LVMH/Hermes underperform luxury peers 5. Housing sector sees no significant recovery, lagging other sectors   Key Chart                 ​

In 2022, the deliveries of the overall car sector grew -3% y/y, facing challenges from Covid restrictions, despite benefiting greatly from stimulus policies in 2H, especially the halved purchase tax for small-engine cars. Self-developed NEVs gained remarkable share from JV and Imported vehicles in the RMB 100-300K segment, but still have a lot of room to grow in the >RMB 300K segment. The RMB 300K segment, BMW, Mercedes Benz, and Audi lost shares to Li Auto, Nio, Aito, and Denza.  Within the NEV sector, BYD, Changan, Zeekr, Aito, Changan Deepal, and Hongqi continuously increased their shares, while Tesla, Wuling, Chery EV, Xpeng, and Ora lost their shares remarkably throughout 2022. For 2023, based on our understanding of the sector, we expect 1) the total deliveries of car sector to be flat or low-single-digit y/y, 2) the penetration rate of NEVs to further improve from 26% in 2022, likely to reach 35% or above, 3) the share of self-developed vehicles to continuously increase from 44% in 2022, driven by domestic NEV brands, and 4) Tesla’s price slash likely to trigger price war in RMB 200-300K price band and this segment is likely to gain more share from others.