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Total Revenue Growth Y/Y to Surge in 1Q23, at the High-End of Consensus; More Tailwind Ahead in F2Q23
Company Insights
Pre Earning View
Key Takeaways Sandalwood estimates Ctrip (TCOM) Total Revenue to surge in 1Q23, at the high-end of the consensus, driven by continuously robust revenge travel demand and further normalization of tour group packages. The data further accelerated in Mar, driven by travel bookings ahead of Labor Day holiday, which is expected to continue in Apr. China Payment cohort data shows an increased level of User Retention and ARPU for Ctrip.   In CNY F4Q22 (ending Dec-22) Company Reporting F1Q23 (ending Mar-23) Sandalwood Estimation F1Q23 (ending Mar-23) Consensus Total Revenue +7% y/y +99% y/y (+97-102% y/y) +96% y/y (+90-100% y/y)   Sandalwood China Payment Cohort Data Is Relevant and Predictive Sandalwood data is able to track the company reported revenue and the number of transactions trend in China. Sandalwood historical data has a decent correlation with China revenue and change in transaction trends, indicating good prediction power.   Sandalwood China Payment Cohort Data shows Strong Positive Momentum in Ctrip (TCOM) Transactions in 1Q23; more Tailwind expected in 2Q Sandalwood China Payment Data’s Ctrip's booking value recovered sharply in 1Q23, with +143% y/y from -10% y/y in 4Q22, driven by continuously robust revenge travel demand and further normalization of tour group packages. The company reported 1Q23 Total Revenue growth is expected to be +97-102% y/y from 4Q22’s +7% y/y, at the high-end of the consensus range +90-100% y/y.
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Net Product Revenue Recovered
Company Insights
Pre Earning View
Sandalwood projects Luckin Coffee reporting net product revenue (in RMB) to grow at +65-70% y/y in 1Q23, recovering from last quarter’s +44% y/y. No consensus to compare with. Sandalwood projects Luckin Coffee reporting monthly transacting customers to grow at +70-75% y/y, recovering from last quarter’s +51% y/y. Sandalwood projects Luckin Coffee reporting total number of stores to reach ~9,100 by the end of 1Q23.  We are overall positive for Luckin Coffee in the following quarters despite the temporary slow-down due to the disruption of covid cases in 4Q22, mainly due to 1) store expansion at a consistently faster pace compared to its competitors such as Starbucks; 2) the continuous mid-to-high double-digit y/y growth for net product revenue and the number of monthly transacting customers; 3) huge growth potential and momentum from tier 3 and below cities.
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Yanker Shop-Apr 2023
Thematic Reports
       Company Signal Bloomberg Ticker Market Cap  (m USD) 1Q23 y/y 4Q22 y/y Correlation Data Source Yanker Shop Positive 002847 CH 2464 +233% +204% 60% China Ecommerce* *China Ecommerce includes Tmall, JD, Pinduoduo, Douyin and Kuaishou ecommerce   Yanker Shop - Positive Sandalwood online data further accelerated in Mar after strong Jan/Feb. Yanker Shop is the major market share gainer in Deli food (Subsector under Snacks) in 1Q23. The brand also continuously outperformed its sector since Jan 2022.  
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