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LKNCY US EQUITY: Luckin Coffee F3Q24 | Neutral
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

In Jul-24, our China Payment Cohort Data captured monthly transacting users both slowed down from the prior quarter, especially the latter with a sharp slowdown from 2Q24’s +59% to +17% y/y. As of Jul-24, our captured Luckin Coffee number of offline stores continuously slowed down to +71% y/y from Jun-24’s +76% y/y and 2Q24’s +84% y/y. It is likely a deliberate move to counter the negative effects from the previous rapid store expansion which led to a lowered average store operating effiency (source).

2024-09-12
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Oversea E-Commerce Platform Competition Analysis-Jul 2024

US & Global: Amazon vs. Temu vs. Tiktok Shop
In Jul, thanks to Prime Day promotion, Amazon shows a strong m/m increase; Temu GMV further ramps up driven by fast growing semi-managed business.
In Jul, Temu's high-end price band (>50 USD) value mix increases noticeably likely due to a ramping-up in local warehouse GMV. Amazon >100 USD value mix increase due to higher mix in consumer electronics and home appliance during promotion.

2024-08-15
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HTHT US EQUITY: Huazhu F2Q24 | Positive
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Huazhou's Total Turnover (Legacy-Huazhu) is estimated to normalize to +23% y/y in 2Q24 vs. 1Q24’s estimation of +29% y/y on tough comps.

The company’s turnover value surged in early May, mainly driven by the strong travel demand during the May Day holiday, particularly in Tier 2 and Tier 3 & below cities, and partly benefiting from the holiday timing difference.

2024-07-17
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1810 HK EQUITY: Xiaomi F2Q24 | Positive
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Sandalwood estimates Xiaomi Total Revenue y/y to accelerate in 2Q24 vs. 1Q24, above consensus.

China Revenue y/y and Cellphone revenue y/y are expected to stay strong in 2Q24. both above consensus, thanks to strong Mi 14 and Mi 13 sales during 6.18, and EV deliveries.

China Auto Insurance data indicates that Xiaomi has delivered 27,183 vehicles in 2Q24.

Xiaomi announced the start of operations at its new self-owned smartphone smart factory in Beijing, with an annual production capacity of 10 million smartphones.

2024-07-15
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LULU US EQUITY: Lululemon F1Q24 | Positive
Company Insights
Post Earning Recap

Lululemon (LULU US Equity) reported F1Q24 PRC Rev(USD) +39% y/y, slowed down but remained healthy growth from last quarter’s +74% y/y, above but directionally in line with our projection range of + 22-27% y/y, at the high end of consensus. 

 The proportion of sales revenue generated in China to the company's global sales has increased from 12% in F1Q23 to 16% in F1Q24.

Sandalwood offline + online data consistently captures 50-60% of Lululemon's reported China total revenue.

2024-06-06
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6.18 Online Topline Overview

Positive: Proya, Giant Biogene, Freda, Marubi, Anta, Fila, Lululemon, Asics, Amer Sports, 361 Degrees, Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo, Sony, Canon, Midea, Roborock

Negative: Kose, Amore, Botanee, Bloomage, Puma, Nike, Apple, Oppo, Xgimi, Gree, Haier, Hisense Visual Technology, Ecovacs

2024-06-05
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Windows to China May 2024

Beike existing home sales volume remains above prior year's level in Apr

Huazhu y/y rebounds strongly during May Day holiday

Moncler/Canada Goose/Prada outperform luxury peers

Overall sportswear sector maintains strength, led by Fila/Xtep/361 Degrees/AS/Asics/On/Mizuno

2024-05-13
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Oversea E-Commerce Platform Competition Analysis Mar 2024

In Mar-24, Amazon continues to lose shares to both Temu and Tiktok shop globally and US only. The strong Mar-24 sales in Temu and Tiktok shop are helped by Spring sales promotion.

In the low price band (<10 USD),  Amazon has lost significant shares to Temu and Tiktok Shop. Epsecially in Mar-24, Amazon market shares drop to below 50%. In the higher price band (10 -50 USD), Temu and Tiktok shop  are also penetrating aggressively.

2024-04-16
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EL US EOUITY: Estee Lauder F3Q24 | Negative
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Sunrise and CDF Hainan platforms deteriorated to -55% y/y in F3Q24(ending Mar-24)  from -52% y/y in the last quarter.

Live streaming platforms accelerated in F3Q24(ending Mar 24), partially offset Tmall/JD weakness.

2024-04-15
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LULU US EQUITY: Lululemon F4Q23 | Positive
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Sandalwood estimates Lululemon’s Ex-NA Rev in F4Q23 (ending Jan-24) to accelerate to +55-60% y/y (USD), at high-end of consensus, mainly driven by strong growth in People’s Republic of China (PRC). The strength is driven by 1) successful marketing strategy and 11.11 promotion, 2) booming outdoor/sports activities in China, and 3) rapid store expansion. Sandalwood data shows Lululemon is not only doing well in its core yoga-related products, but also in other product lines such as sports jackets and trousers.

2024-02-20
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BEKE US EOUITY: Beike F4Q23 | Neutral
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

In Oct-23, Sandalwood captured existing-home GTV (RMB) and sales volume grew at +12% y/y and +28% y/y respectively, remaining resilient compared to last quarter’s +11% y/y and +14% y/y respectively; we estimated the GTV and total number of second-hand properties closed would further improve to +23% y/y and +39% y/y in Nov from Oct’s +12% y/y and +28% y/y.Existing home visit numbers remained healthy in Nov-23 at +59% y/y; Shenzhen weekly visits witnessed an uptick in the last week of Nov thanks to the lowered down payment to 40% for the second-purchased home starting from Nov 23rd 

2024-02-12
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11.11 Online Cosmetics Snapshot
Key Takeaways

Positive: Proya, Giant Biogene, Marubi, Freda (Lushang Development), Shanghai Jahwa, Shanghai Chicmax, Syoung

Negative: Kose, Shiseido, Estee Lauder, P&G, LGHH, Bloomage, Botanee, Huaxizi

  • Overall cosmetics Tmall+JD+Douyin top stores’ sales decline -13% y/y during Oct 1-Nov 2 likely due to 1) KOL's scandal in Sep and 2) Japan radiation water concern. Tmall declines -24% y/y, more than offsetting double-digit growths on JD and Douyin.
  • Mass market brands gain in Skincare, while luxury/premium brands gain Makeup.
2023-11-22
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Japanese Companies in China - Aug 2023
Key Takeaways
Positive trend: 1、Sportswear: Mizuno, Snowpeak; 2、Toys & Accessories: Sanrio

Negative trend: 1、Sportswear: Yonex; 2、Cosmetics & Personal Care: P&G (SK II), Kose, KAO, Unicharm, MTG, Pigeo

2023-10-12
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China Reopening Activity Tracker - Aug 2023

Positive: Travel sector, Japan tourism, Isetan, H2O Retailing, J Front RetailingCtripTongcheng ElongMoncler

1. On y/y basis, Retail/Restaurant remain largely seasonal in Aug MTD vs. Jul, while Auto becomes less negative, although still ample room for recovery. Housing (new home sales) continues to be the most negative, but likely close to the bottom as more support measures roll out in early Sep. 

2. Chinese luxury spending continues to be healthy based on daily trend, mainly supported by Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, and other regions in APAC. Moncler outperforms the most.

 

2023-09-05
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NKE US EQUITY: Nike F3Q23 | Neutral
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Sandalwood estimates Nike Brand Greater China Revenue Y/Y (USD) to accelerate in F4Q23 (ending May-23), driven by 1) strong online sales performance during the 6.18 promotion pre-sales period, 2) increased outdoor activities, and 3) easy comps from the lockdown last year.

2023-06-21
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China Fresh Made Beverage Sector Competition Analysis July 2023

Fresh Made Beverage sector is expected to continue its growth trends in the next 5 years; the chain rate is expected to further increase. Chain brands are willing to expand in lower city tiers.

In Jun-23, most coffee names' sales value y/y slightly slowed down on normalizing comps; looking at y/2y, Starbucks become slightly less negative yet still remained stagnant.

Luckin Coffee y/y slightly slowed down in Jun-23 mainly due to the lowered ticket size as Luckin started another round of coupon give-away to celebrate the opening of 10,000th stores (source); volume y/y accelerated to +62% y/y from May-23's +54% y/y.

2023-06-07
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BEKE US EQUITY: Beike F2Q23 | Negative
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Though the y/y strength of new home sales in 1Q23 is partly attributable to the one-time release of the pent-up demand accumulated during the pandemic, we do notice Beike new home sales outperformed the overall market’s growth rate of ~20% y/y. It might indicate that Beike will be taking more shares in 1Q23. Therefore, we have a positive view on Beike.

2023-05-17
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002847 CH EQUITY: Yanker Shop-Apr 2023| Positive
Thematic Reports

Yanker Shop is the major market share gainer in Deli food (Subsector under Snacks) in 1Q23. The brand also continuously outperformed its sector since Jan 2022.

2023-04-13
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Windows to China Feb 2023
Thematic Reports
1、Hainan DFS and Ctrip (TCOM) recover strongly from late Dec through Jan, driven by revenge travel
2、Lululemon continues to outperform sportswear peers both online and offline
2023-02-10
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China Car Sector Analysis 2022
Thematic Reports

In 2022, the deliveries of the overall car sector grew -3% y/yfacing challenges from Covid restrictions, despite benefiting greatly from stimulus policies in 2H, especially the halved purchase tax for small-engine cars.

2023-01-30
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AAPL US EQUITY: Apple F3Q22 | Neutral
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Compared to the previous generation after 3 weeks since launch, iPhone 14 standard model underperforms, iPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max perform decently, while Apple Watch 8 outperforms.

2022-10-18
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KER FP EQUITY: Kering F2Q22 | Negative
Company Insights
Pre Earning View

Our data suggest Gucci continues to underperform peers, likely due to 1) several negative social media coverages earlier this year, 2) brand positioning as “trendy pieces” vs. peers’ “timeless pieces”

2022-10-13
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Windows to China Aug 2022
Thematic Reports

1、Hermes continues to outgrow peers; Domestic jewelers, especially Chow Tai Fook, further accelerate in Jul

2、Express shipment remains healthy led by J&T/STO/JDL in Jul

3、Lululemon soars on JD store opening and resilient Tmall; Xtep outperforms; Nike retains recovered-level in Jul

2022-08-09
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