How U.S.-China Tariffs Are Reshaping Cross-Border E-Commerce: A Data-Driven Look at Temu, TikTok Shop, and Amazon

In recent months, escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China have returned to the spotlight, with the Trump administration intensifying tariff measures and notably targeting cross-border e-commerce. At the center of this policy shift is the cancellation of the de minimis exemption—a provision that previously allowed low-value goods (under $800) to enter the U.S. duty-free. This change is particularly impactful for overseas e-commerce platforms that rely heavily on low-cost, direct-from-China shipments.

Using Sandalwood's e-commerce tracking data, we observed noticeable shifts in platform performance in April 2025, coinciding with the rollout of these new trade policies.

Price Increases and GMV Softness:

All three major players—Temu Global, TikTok Shop US, and Amazon US—saw year-over-year GMV growth decelerate in April compared to March. Temu was hit the hardest due to its high exposure to the U.S. market and reliance on low-priced imports, while TikTok Shop Global remained more insulated thanks to its strong user base in Southeast Asia (now accounting for over 70% of its GMV).

Market Share Shifts:

As pricing pressures mounted, Temu lost share to TikTok Shop—especially in the sub-$10 ASP segment—while Amazon maintained its position due to its diversified seller base and strong domestic fulfillment capabilities.

ASP Dynamics and Volume Drops:

Temu saw a sharp month-over-month increase (US semi-managed business +7% m/m, Global +11% m/m) in average selling prices in April, driven by broad-based price hikes and the removal of low-priced items, which led to a significant volume decline. In comparison, Amazon US’s prices rose 3.6% m/m and TikTok Shop US’s just 1% m/m, suggesting more moderate inflationary impact

Category-Level Trends: TikTok Shop Expands Its Footprint:

TikTok Shop gained share from Temu in core categories like apparel, outdoor & sports, and home furnishings—segments that are price-sensitive and vulnerable to tariff-related hikes. Despite the pressure, Temu remained resilient in the $10–$50 range, supported by its semi-managed business model. Notably, TikTok Shop also encroached on Amazon’s strongholds, such as consumer electronics and home appliances, signaling intensifying competition across the value spectrum.

The cancellation of the de minimis exemption and renewed tariff focus are reshaping the U.S. e-commerce landscape. Import-reliant platforms like Temu face rising costs, while TikTok Shop remains more resilient thanks to its strong Southeast Asia presence. Amazon has been relatively insulated, supported by its domestic fulfillment network and forward buying in its first-party business, which likely helped stabilize prices and preserve market share. Recent U.S.-China trade talks in May signal a potential easing of tensions, but structural shifts in cross-border sourcing and pricing strategies are likely to persist.

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