sandalwood

Key Takeaways

In September, China's online smartphone market saw unit sales fall 10% year on year, yet sales value grew about 30%; Apple delivered 14% volume growth and 42% value growth, making it the main driver of the market's value growth against a shrinking overall market.

Apple's new iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max together grew unit sales 44% year on year, with the Pro Max contributing about 79% of the two new models' incremental sales — a clear sign that upgrade demand is concentrating on the top-spec version.

The market's price structure is showing a rare ultra-premium expansion: sub-RMB 4,000 price bands contracted across the board, and vendors have mostly chosen to absorb the shift in the RMB 10,000-plus band, where price sensitivity is lowest — though the actual increment still concentrates among the few vendors with premium-brand strength.

01 Overall market shrinks while Apple’s new iPhones gain in both volume and price

Apple contributes more than 80% of the market’s year-on-year value growth

Every September is the window when Apple’s new iPhones go on sale in full force, and a key vantage point for reading upgrade demand for premium phones.

Sandalwood’s China e-commerce monitoring shows that in September 2026, China’s online smartphone market posted a 10% year-on-year decline in unit sales, while sales value grew about 30% and ASP rose roughly 40%. With volume down but value and average prices up, the market remained in a shrinking-volume adjustment under rising costs, with growth coming mostly from a higher share of high-price models.

Apple clearly outperformed the market average.

In September 2026, Apple’s online unit sales grew 14% year on year and its ASP rose 25%, lifting sales value 42%.

Even with total market volume falling, Apple achieved simultaneous growth in units and average price: the new iPhones not only captured existing users’ upgrade demand but also concentrated more of the volume in high-price models.

Measured by incremental value, Apple contributed more than 80% of the market’s year-on-year sales-value growth in September — meaning the month’s rise in sales value was driven largely by Apple’s new models.

02 Pro Max leads this upgrade cycle, contributing 80% of incremental sales

Launch buyers remain highly receptive to the top-spec version

Apple’s new-model growth was concentrated in the iPhone Pro and Pro Max lines.

In September 2026, the two lines combined grew unit sales 44% year on year and sales value 67%, accounting for 88% of Apple’s online unit sales and 93% of its sales value that month. Volume is highly concentrated in the Pro Max line, and top-spec models have become the main revenue source of Apple’s launch cycle.

By model:

• iPhone 18 Pro: unit sales up 23% from the iPhone 17 Pro over the same period, sales value up 41%, ASP up 14%;
• iPhone 18 Pro Max: unit sales up 52%, sales value up 78%, ASP up 17%. Both models expanded volume while also moving up in price and configuration.

The Pro Max is the stronger of the two new models. Measured by incremental unit sales, the iPhone 18 Pro Max contributed about 79% of the two models’ added volume.

In the previous generation over the same period, Pro Max volume was already higher than the Pro; with this generation, the gap has widened further.

This shows launch buyers remain highly receptive to the top-spec version. For Apple users with a clear upgrade plan, differences in screen, camera, battery life, and storage still support a higher purchase budget. With Pro Max volume growing faster than the Pro — and transaction prices rising faster as well — Apple’s sales structure concentrated further in high-price models.

03 The RMB 10,000-plus market absorbs the upmarket shift; scale growth still depends on overall brand strength

A rare ultra-premium expansion in the market’s price structure

The strong performance of Apple’s new models further amplified the upward shift in the price structure of China’s online smartphone market.

On a quarterly view, China’s online smartphone market shows a pattern of “a shrinking low-price base, an expanding middle price range, a contracting RMB 6,000–10,000 band, and an upward push above RMB 10,000”:

• below RMB 2,000 has weakened since Q2, with the decline widening further in Q3;
• within RMB 2,000–6,000, demand is gradually shifting from RMB 2,000–2,500 toward RMB 4,000–6,000;
• RMB 6,000–10,000 has contracted markedly in scale and share;
• while ultra-premium brands above RMB 10,000 are pushing upmarket on their own and enlarging the increment.

Entering September, the trend became more pronounced after the new models went on sale. The ~RMB 1,000 budget market’s unit sales fell 46% year on year, while RMB 10,000-plus grew 204% — the only price band to post growth that month.

This cycle has seen a fairly rare ultra-premium expansion of the market’s price structure. The price bands below RMB 4,000, where price sensitivity is higher, contracted broadly in volume and value, and the supply side’s upward shift in pricing has further highlighted the dilemma of the RMB 6,000–10,000 market — raise prices and demand defers; cut configurations and product strength slips. Vendors have therefore mostly chosen to concentrate absorption in the RMB 10,000-plus band, where price sensitivity is lowest.

But a presence in the RMB 10,000-plus market does not mean every player gains accordingly. By OS camp, iOS, HarmonyOS, and Android all grew in the RMB 10,000-plus market, but the differences in scale are marked.

Android’s high growth rate mainly comes from a low base; iOS combines scale and growth, holding more than 90% of the price band’s unit sales; HarmonyOS forms the second camp.

Although the RMB 10,000-plus market is expanding rapidly, the actual increment still concentrates in a few vendors with premium brand recognition and mature ecosystems.

So entering the high-price segment does not equal building sales at scale. For brands whose sales sit mainly in the low and mid price ranges, premium models serve mostly to showcase technology and push the brand upmarket, and are hard to scale in the short term. To compete in the RMB 10,000-plus market, a brand first needs to identify the price range where it can genuinely build volume, then climb step by step from a stable base — rather than simply expanding into the premium market by raising prices.